It’s been about a month since
my last report.
How have things changed? Here are updated versions of the two epi-curves:
Well, Italy looks to be just
about done. In fact, one doctor
on May 31ˢᵗ that “the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy” because
the people testing ‘positive’ today have much lower viral loads than those
from a month or two ago. The government told him to shut up and stop
Meanwhile, in Waterloo on June 1ˢᵗ, there was another uptick in the slope
of the dark-blue curve. There does not seem to be any “first wave” that is
ending. The nursing-home ‘outbreak’ looks to be over but the spread in
the broader ‘community’ continues linearly. (I don’t know where
those vertical grey lines are coming from — my browser or their CMS?)
Once again I have written down some numbers every day for a week:
|Date||Total||New||LTC/RH||age 50‒59||age 80+||Active|
|May 29||1,105|| 5||627||188||226||91|
|May 30||1,108|| 1||(Sunday reports discontinued)|
|May 31||1,113|| 5||628||189||226||154|
|June 2||1,138|| 6||650||193||227||171|
|June 3||1,142|| 3||659||193||228||166|
|June 4||1,152|| 7||663||193||228||110|
The government has decided to stop issuing reports on Sundays. This
isn’t the first time they’ve had a period where they decided to issue
fewer than 7 reports per week. The ‘Total’
and ‘New’ values can be pulled from the
epi-curves, but the other numbers are inaccessible for non-report days.
The ‘(prev)’ row is just a copy from my previous report.
Some obvious good news is that the weekly increase in the ‘Total’ is now
half of what it was, as is the average daily increase in the
non-LTC ‘New’ cases. This is especially
notable because the province recently relaxed their regulations: you
can now get tested even if you have no symptoms and are not a healthcare
worker. The case-count increase for my age-group is only ⅕ of what it
was, while the increase for the over-80 people is down to ⅙.
The bits of bad news are data-quality issues. The increase in ‘Total’
is +60, while the ‘New’ non-LTC cases add
up to 50 and the LTC figure increased by +38. Wait, shouldn't the ‘Total’
have increased by 88?
The newly-sick seem to be mostly young people and over half of them work
in LTC homes, but the percentage of ever-sick people who are healthcare
workers (not shown above but available
has spent most of the pandemic hovering around 30% but has recently fallen
to 25%, implying that a whole bunch of non-healthcare people recently got
sick — so where are they in my table? Most other public-health units report
10%-15% healthcare workers among their sick; I do not know of any
explanation for why so many healthcare workers in Waterloo are afflicted.
I’m not sure what is going on with
the Active value for May 29ᵗʰ, which seems
to be an outlier. Unfortunately it is based on daily ‘Recovered’ and
‘Deceased’ values that I did not save and can no longer re-check. If we
ignore that entry, then Active decreased by
39 over five days, which would be an improvement over my previous report
rather than getting worse as shown in the table.
Meanwhile, Premier Ford has
extended all emergency orders
until June 19ᵗʰ, including the prohibition on groups larger than five
people. Restaurant dining rooms remain closed, which means restaurant
delivery drivers are still needed for the emergency. The SkipTheDishes
app still shows large numbers of available open shifts; in pre-Pandemic
times the open shifts were few and snapped up within seconds. It’s
dinnertime right now so UberEats is offering a $1.50 “surge” bonus per
order — but their regular rates are still 30% lower than when I
started working for them. Neither of these companies feels the need to offer anything that could be called "hazard pay". My daughter continues to insist that neither of
her older/chronically-ill parents may enter a store and she will do all
the shopping while I sit in the car.
So I am tentatively concluding that I should continue to not work for
maybe another two weeks.